Update: Microsoft released an official statement regarding the demo shown in New York. Here's what they had to say:
The proof of concept "Project Natal" demo shown in New York last week was not new, nor was it intended to show incremental progress. We wanted to share the same E3 experience with those who weren’t able to experience “Project Natal” in June. However, the “Project Natal” development team has been hard at work perfecting the technology over the past eight months and will continue to do so. When "Project Natal" launches this holiday, the experiences will be in keeping with Xbox 360 standards of performance and will transform living room entertainment.
Original Story: Microsoft was showing off Project Natal last week in New York. It was nothing new, just the familiar hand ball game that was demoed at E3 last year, but it did give me an opportunity to get a closer look at the progress that's been made since last summer. Specifically just how close the motion capture is to real life (which is something that Kotaku discussed today). I brought with me a trusty stop watch so you can get an idea as to how long it takes for your movement to be recreated on-screen.
I had a pretty large sample size, sitting through 5 demos, capturing about 40 different movements from a variety of journalists. Across those 40 movements, the fastest life-to-screen transition was .08 seconds, while the slowest was .12 seconds. A tenth of a second was the consistent average, though.
What that means is that, in its current state, Natal is not instant, one-to-one motion capture. It's close, very close, but once you start playing you'll undoubtedly notice a tiny delay. It's to be expected, certainly. Even high-end Hollywood studio motion capture devices have a slight delay, and a camera sitting in front of your TV doesn't come close to the fidelity of 30 cameras in a massive studio.
Interestingly, it would appear that the demo being shown in New York is identical to the one shown at E3, right down to the delay. I wasn't allowed to film the screen, but this exclusive CNET video from last August does feature person-and-screen footage and it gives a great sense of what you can expect, delay-wise. The appropriate footage kicks in at 2:05:
So is this a problem? Not really. It's true that games like "Wii Sports Resort" have all but done away with the delay, but that was three years after the release of the Wii, and they had to introduce a new hardware peripheral to make it happen. In theory Natal's delay could be mitigated by firmware updates and better programming over time. Also, I'd be shocked if Microsoft showed the same ball demo at E3 2010, and for all I know they're sitting on the killer app that features instant motion capture right out of the gate.
Even if they aren't, though, Natal is undoubtedly a game-changer. There's something innately freeing about not having to hold a controller, and I can definitely foresee a Wii-esque revival of non-gamers getting back into the action. After all, a tenth of a second isn't that long, right?