Late last week Patrick and I sent an essay question to a couple of gaming’s most knowledgeable and quotable financial analysts.

We wanted to know when they thought the PS2 would drop in price to $99 in the U.S.

This was our full question:

Sony dropped the price of the first PlayStation to $99 in 1999, four years after the system’s release. The PS2 has been out since 2000, and in almost double the time, still has not dropped to $99. There are many reasons for this: lack of competition for the PS2 in the back half of the last hardware generation; Sony’s struggles getting the expensive PS3 off the ground; etc. The question is: Do you think the PS2 will go down to $99? When and why?

In short order, we heard back from Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities and Evan Wilson of Pacific Crest Securities.

Neither gave us reason to expect a price drop any time soon. And one of them gave us two games to blame: “Guitar Hero” and “Rock Band.”

On Thursday evening, Pachter left us a voicemail, in which he said:

The real reason we haven’t seen a $99 PS2 is that demand hasn’t dropped enough for Sony to justify the price cut. Compelling content like ‘Guitar Hero‘ and ‘Rock Band‘ keeps the demand for PS2s up. I saw a ‘Guitar Hero’ PS2 bundle at Best Buy a couple of months ago for $189. They’re discounting 30 bucks if you buy the two together. I think games like that — that are kind of a one-off for people who haven’t played a PS2 game before and will [make them] say ‘Hey, I can buy a PS2, why not?’ — [will help keep the price where it is.]

As long as you’ve got a couple hundred thousand PS2s a month selling, Sony doesn’t feel compelled to make the cut. I think you will get the cut, because, frankly, Sony wants to differentiate the PS3. I think the PS3 comes down to $349, maybe $299 if they can afford it. But they’ve just been selling four to five million PS2s a year in the U.S. so there’s no reason to cut the price until it drops to two million. It really is just demand-driven.

And on Friday, Wilson left us an e-mail, in which he wrote:

The PS2 will almost certainly drop to $99 at some point, but I think it’s unlikely in the near-term. The PS2 continues to sell through very well without a price cut. Even if the PS3 was a rip-roaring success (all other things remaining equal), Sony would have little incentive to cut the price.

Here is the data from NPD to show what I mean:

In the U.S. the PS2 sold thru 844K units in Q106. The PS2 sold through 831K units in Q108.

Also, note that adjusted for inflation a $99 product in 1999 costs $125 in 2007.

Even with all the competition from other platforms it continues to sell-through nicely. Until that it declines there is not a great reason to sacrifice that very profitable revenue stream.

Why will they eventually do it? To capture the audience that isn’t interested in the PS2 at $129.

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Are these guys right? Who wants a $99 PS2? And when do you want it?