Demos may be the best way to find out if you like a game, but releasing one might not be in a publisher’s best financial interest, according to a study discussed at last week’s MI6 video game marketing conference.
This is the same study, presented by Gregory Short and Geoffery Zatkin, heads of the Electronic Entertainment Design and Research Group (EEDAR), which recommended marketing teams should work with developers to come up with an Xbox 360 game’s Achievements.
While demos may be effective at producing word-of-mouth, the EEDAR found that the highest selling games on both Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 produced buzz via Xbox Live Marketplace and PlayStation Network with trailers alone.
There are some other interesting bits extrapolate, so let’s look at how the sales break down…
Though demos have become commonplace a few weeks ahead of a game’s release, the EEDAR found that trailers are more effective than hands-on time with the product. Short and Zatkin actually recommended publishers start producing demos only after release to avoid interference with the final weeks of polish.
These findings appear consistent across both Xbox 360 and PS3 since the launch of the machines, except in one instance. Games that did not release a trailer or demo on PSN performed better at retail than games on Xbox 360. On Xbox 360, it appears, publishers are better off releasing something, whether that’s just a demo, just a trailer or both elements.
It doesn’t seem likely demos are going away anytime soon — especially for titles that can’t afford a strong TV and online marketing campaign — but the numbers suggest larger games may benefit from avoiding a demo.
Readers, what would you do if publishers stopped releasing demos? Do you think a new game like “BioShock” would have been as popular if there wasn’t a demo? As the study implies, could it have been more popular if it was only teased as a trailer?
April 14th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
An interesting choice for the picture. That happens to be the demo disk that will erase your memory card if you play the Ratchet and Clank demo.
April 14th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
This data appears to have real issues unless they are correlated with some measure of game quality, general game anticipation and marketing budget.
Gears of War, COD4, Rock Band and Halo had no demos, but they didn’t need them due to their marketing and general market anticipation. The very AAA games were more likely to not need demos to get sales.
Also games with bad demos were likely to scare away customers, while bad games with no demos would leave customers in the dark. Likely the real story is to have demos for good games, and none for bad games. The AAA games having no demo issue makes these figures meaningless however without more details when pitched to middle-of-the-road developers.
April 14th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
I think this data is skewed a little by the fact that the highest selling games tend to be those that are well known about before it’s release and don’t need a demo (Halo, GTA, COD4, etc). Thus, these games are substantially raising the “Trailer Only” demographic.
I think the correct answer (which doesn’t need a study with fancy graphs), is some games benefit from demos while others are hurt by demos. Lost Planet and Bioshock are good examples of games that benefited from a good demo. Halo 3 would have probably suffered in sales if a demo was released.
April 14th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Interesting….. Isn’t this just proof that good *marketing* rather than good *product* is what drives sales?
April 14th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
I’m sorry JFK has this one right. I downloaded the Turok demo and saw how crappy the game was after playing COD4. So they shouldn’t have released a demo as it actually just caused me not to buy it.
Anyone smart spending $60 on a video game will hopefully not listen to marketing, and instead try the game out first.
If we all listened to marketing, we would all own a copy of that wonderful game “Lair” . . . another huge embarrasing failure by Sony.
April 14th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
It’s easy to make a game look amazing in a trailer, you can edit in exactly what you want the audience to see. If your game plays like crap, no one will know. A demo is more of a gamble, but it seems like it can pay off big, like Bioshock’s did.
April 14th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Personally, I really like having demos, but I can understand their concern. As was mentioned, some of the big AAA titles did *not* have a demo for them…but was that by design?
Halo 3 didn’t technically have a demo, but it had the beta multiplayer that I participated in. CoD 4 didn’t have one either, but CoD 2 did. Is it just coincidence that I own CoD 2 and *not* CoD 4?
Personally though, if they were going to do anything, I would follow the recommendation of releasing the demo several weeks after the game comes out. As they said, then it wouldn’t interfere with the final crunch to get it out, but secondly, it’s targeted at a different market.
Your early adopters will get the game based on marketing/trailers, true…but what about those on the fence? After the big release a demo could be what pushes someone that on the fence to actually go out and get the game. If there were a CoD 4 demo right now that I could download, it might push me to go get the game.
April 14th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
There are lots of games i have bought based on the demo that i never would have looked at without it.
There are lots of games i didn’t buy based on the demo also.
It seems to even out.
April 14th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
If a game doesn’t have a demo I won’t buy it until I see it in action or a friend with similar taste who owns it recommends it to me…
We all know how easy it is to make a fake trailer that have nothing to do with the gameplay at all. Or set the engine at such settings that you get 1-5fps on a 5000$+ machine and then speed up the captured content to get unrealistic quality.
P.S. I’d rather pirate a game without a demo before I buy it than buy it based on the reviews and trailers. That is a lesson I had to learn the hard way … And because of past experience I no longer preorder games before i see a demo and know I’ll be getting good enough product for the money I pay - there are few exceptions for a few well known titles that I know won’t disappoint me. And the surprising thing is that those games usually don’t have the so popular nowadays stunning graphics that everyone is trying to promote lately but what they lack in that department they more than compensate with the story and other elements. As a result I know I’ll be spending 100+ hours instead of 10-20h on a lame story with stunning graphics with no or almost none replay value…
April 14th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
I agree with this. You’d be surprised at how many casual people would simply be satisfied just playing the free demo than bother purchasing the full retail game. Also if your demo isn’t well done it’ll @?%~~ your sales and spread bad word of mouth even if the final product is immaculate.
This is precisely one of the reasons that Kojima won’t release an MGS4 demo for the single player game. It’ll take away resources that could go towards finishing and polishing off the retail game, and even then an early demo will not reflect the final game as Kojima makes massive changes and they work on the game right up to the final hour.
It would be better for some developers to simply work on the retail version, then after that’s released… a month later they can put together a good demo to convince those who held off to hop aboard and it’ll reflect the final version of the game.
However if companies have the time and resources to put together a good demo that works very well, then it would definately help them! That’s what ‘Ratchet and Clank’ and ‘Uncharted’ did and the demos alone convinced me to get these games for which I had no prior interest in!
April 15th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
I have to totally disagree with this POV. All of us as consumers, should feel the same way. Demos keep the game outfits in check when producing a title. I’ve had a 360 for a year and a half and only own 4 games. GOW(no demo, but bought because it was a system seller), Forza 2(good demo), COD4(because the beta test was great), and burnout paradise(another good demo). I bought HALO3(no demo, no wonder…), and returned it for credit in anticipation for COD4. Had there of been a demo for HALO3, I could have saved myself some money. Ther’s a lot of demos on XBL that are entertaining, but only a few make you think,,” I need to play more of this game”. Point being, if you’ve created a “worthy game”, a demo only helps build the excitement of it’s arrival. If you don’t release a demo, it’s problably because it’s a polished turd of a game, and the developers know it. Sometimes playing a demo you think to yourself,”they actually thought that this is entertaining?”.I agree with …, and Will.
April 15th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Previous commenters have said it, but it’s worth repeating.
A demo for a crappy game will hurt that game’s sales (Turok, Turning Point).
A demo for a great game will aid that game’s sales (Crackdown, Forza, Bioshock).
All these data tell us is that more crappy games have demos than good games. Mr Cause, meet Mr Effect.
April 15th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Nah that is false info. I have never chosen a game based on a trailer. A matter of fact I would have never picked up Guitar Hero III, Crackdown, Saints Row or Bioshock if it wasn’t for the demo. $60 is too much of an investment to buy a game and have it not be worth playing.
April 16th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
My point of view on this matter is that Demos are not very useful for terrible games and super-popular, i-was-gonna-buy-it-no-matter-what type games (smash bros, halo, etc), but is very helpful for games that don’t have a whole lot of hype behind them but still offer a very good game. Games like Psychonauts may have done a lot better when they were initially released if a Demo were more readily available.
I very rarely buy anything for the 360 that doesn’t have a demo available. It seems that if a company doesn’t have enough faith in their product to release a demo for it there’s probably a very good reason for it.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Almost every single demo that I have played, with the exception of stuff from the Grand Turismo series has been horrible. It never really gives you a good sense of what you are going to like and almost always enhances the flaws of the game.