What if I was wrong about Nintendo? What If a lot of us were?
As a reporter my job is to ask questions, observe and share my findings. In the process I develop an understanding of facts, a sense of the patterns I see. Sometimes, though, I realize what I think I've figured out is incorrect.
That's how I'm feeling about Nintendo these days. I'm ready to chuck one of my main ideas about the Wii. I see a different pattern than I used to, a new understanding, one that suggests a much more radical aspect of the Wii than I had previously considered.
My old Wii idea: Nintendo's console is a party console, destined to by full of party games -- mini-games. Hence this blog's running tally, in the right hand margin of total mini-games on the Wii.
My new Wii idea: Nintendo's console is a party console, destined to mark the end of Nintendo-crafted single-player game designs. I fully expect the next "Zelda," the next "Donkey Kong," even the next "Mario" role-playing game to be designed in such a way that at least two players will be able to enjoy the main game mode simultaneously.
I've got sales figures, analysis of old games, advertising hints and more to back this up. Let's see if you agree.
The Set-Up...
Is it really bold to say that Nintendo will leave solo-only game design?
Maybe not. Perhaps the trend is obvious? I am writing this piece barely a week before the North American release of "Super Mario Galaxy" -- the first "Mario" console game since 1990's "Super Mario Brothers 3" to include multiplayer. "Galaxy" multiplayer allows one gamer to control Mario while the other uses a second Wii remote to point out areas of interest, shoot enemies, collect gems and hold moving platforms steady.
Solid as I think my theory is, it is open to doubt. Look at Nintendo's "Zelda" franchise: single-player since the first of more than a dozen installments, with just a few exceptions. One Game Boy Advance "Zelda" had a multiplayer mode as does the most recent, "Phantom Hourglass." But neither of those games showed that Nintendo knew how to integrate multiplayer design into the core "Zelda" formula. That idea was last attempted with 2004's "Four Swords Adventures" on the GameCube.
There are other signs that Nintendo could actually have already moved past the idea of making multiplayer the company's key design focus. Note the apparently dropped co-op "Mario Kart" concept that was implemented for the 2003 "Double Dash" edition of the series on the GameCube but not brought back for the comprehensive 2005 DS installment. Nintendo let "Metroid Prime" go multiplayer in that series' second game but didn't include it in the just-released third. Just this week Nintendo will release a "Fire Emblem" Wii game that is solo-only.
The Reasons...
So on what exactly am I basing my theory?
Advertising: Nintendo markets Wii games as multi-player games, even when there is little, if any, multiplayer in a given game. The main mode of "Battalion Wars 2," for example is single-player only. The game offers no split-screen multiplayer option. Yet the official trailer shows groups of people on couches experiencing the game together. "Metroid Prime 3" has no multiplayer at all; yet Nintendo's commercial for it suggests that sessions of the game should be experienced by crowds. Not since pre-release concept videos have I seen Nintendo promoting the image of a single person playing a Wii game alone. Instead, the Nintendo image of Wii gaming has consistently included at least two people in front of the TV, playing together or, at least, taking turns.
Development Trends: Anyone who has been playing a lot of Nintendo games must see the multi-player patten taking shape. The days of new single-player ideas such as "Pikmin" and "Luigi's Mansion" have given way to family-play to the long-term dominance of "Animal Crossing" and "Wii Sports." Recent, ostensibly single-player Nintendo ideas have been designed to encourage the group-play characteristics masterfully designed in the "Pokemon" series: consider "Nintendogs"'s Bark Mode and "Brain Age"'s multi-user scoreboards.
To be honest, I fudged the "Zelda" analysis above. "Wind Waker" actually did show that Nintendo designers were figuring out how to integrate a second player into the classic "Zelda" structure. That game let a second player ride shotgun as Tingle, using a GBA to navigate levels rendered in 3D on the GameCube. The multi-user control concept disappeared in "Twilight Princess," but the actual adventures of Link late in that game and in the dungeons of both "Wind Waker" and "Phantom Hourglass" have featured partner characters for our hero. I see the signs that co-op adventuring could soon be the "Zelda" norm.
Nintendo's Announcements: The company's announced slate of post"Galaxy" Wii games include the online multiplayer games "Super Smash Brothers Brawl" and "Mario Kart." They include expected multiplayer title "Super Mario Stadium Baseball" and two "Wii Sports"-style games in "Wii Fit" and "Wii Music." While that's not a line-up exclusively comprised of mini-game collections -- a fear some Wii gamers had about the system when Nintendo rolled out "Wii Sports," "Wii Play," "Wario Ware: Smooth Moves" and "Mario Party 8" in the system's first six months -- there is not a lock-yourself-in-the-basement-and-play-it-on-your-own game in the bunch (well... maybe "Disaster Day of Crisis," but we know so little about it, that who can say?).
Sales: The future I'm predicting may have already been affirmed by the market. In September, Microsoft led key cross-platform American sales charts. "Halo 3" was the dominant top-selling game at 3.3 million copies to the 282,000 of the number two title, "Wii Play," according to the NPD sales-tracking group. The Xbox 360 was the top-selling console, with 527,000 to the Wii's 501,000. But Nintendo actually trumped Microsoft on one other cross-platform chart: accessories. The Wii Nunchuk topped the chart, beating the Wii remote and the Xbox 360 controller. Why would the Nunchuk win, and what does it mean? Every Wii owners' first remote and nunchuk are packaged with theirnew console. The consistently strong sales for the Februray-launched "Wii Play" suggest that people are buying the title in order to get its packed-in remote. If they get it, they're left one nunchuk short of a second set. That makes the need to buy a standalone nunchuk greater than the need to buy a standalone remote.
But in a month that the multiplayer-centric "Halo 3" dominates the charts, you might expect that the Xbox 360 controller would trump any Nintendo one. Apparently not. There are two possible reasons why. One is that the 360 controller sales were split across a few different colors: the standard white one was number three on the list; and the black one was number four. But the other thing I'm reading from the numbers is that the Xbox 360's brand of multiplayer may be largely an online, one-controller-per-console one, whereas the Wii's multiplayer seems to involve a one-room party set-up. Is there a stat for number of people playing a console in front of a single TV? If so, I bet the Wii tops that average.
In Closing...
Where I'm going with all of this is the idea that "The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess" may be a relic of a previous era. When the Wii is old, I expect that game to look like an aberration: a freakishly lonely experience offered in a library of titles designed primarily for group indulgence.
I used to think we'd be getting a lot of mini-games on the Wii. And to be honest, I wasn't thrilled as a gamer. Now the gamer in me has a new question and concern: how would -- how will -- the single-player game designs I've been familiar with since the NES be morphed into multi-player games of my predicted Nintendo future? Are we in store for more "Super Mario Galaxy"s, more instances of a second player controlling the fairy-cursor, the sparkling follower? Will Samus get a player-two-controlled partner drone? Will Kirby gain a Jiminy Cricket friend? "Super Paper Mario" already had a partner butterfly for Mario. Will someone else be controlling that butterfly for me if and when Nintendo produces a sequel?
I wouldn't be too worried. A few weekends ago, I was showing a pair of the great single-player "Zelda" games to my friend N'Gai Croal. I showed him the milk-bar side-quest in "Majora's Mask." The quest requires the player to transform Link into different creatures, each of whom has a different musical instrument. N'Gai was surprised that Link's Zora form wielded a guitar.
We started talking about the theory behind this post and an idea sprang upon us. Co-op "Zelda" without the second player controlling a cursor-fairy: I control Link the way I always do. N'Gai wields the "Guitar Hero III" Wii guitar. I adventure my way through dungeons. N'Gai plays guitar riffs to raise my health, weaken my enemies or warp me out of trouble. N'Gai's role could be optional, like the second player's in "Super Mario Galaxy." But I liked our idea. It would be more fun than just having him watch me play "Zelda."
In February 2006, game designer Raph Koster posted an essay on his blog about the demise of single-player gaming. He said, in part, that "The single-player game is a strange mutant monster which has only existed for 21 years and is about to go away because it is unnatural and abnormal." He declared the solo format doomed.
Was someone at Nintendo taking notes?
I could get into Nintendo's killing-off of solo-only gaming. But right now Nintendo is announcing no such thing. It's just my theory.
Let's see if I'm right.
